Epl Sleepers
It was an odd and eventful opening weekend to the English Premier League. Leicester City looked like the team of famed 2015-2016 glory…briefly… only to see a 3-2 lead evaporate in the final few minutes to turn into a devastating 4-3 loss at Arsenal. The Foxes were less than ten minutes away from a win over Arsenal for the first time in their EPL history, only to leave the Emirates with nary a point.
Meanwhile, one of the historically strongest wagers on opening day, current holders Chelsea took a stunning loss, at home nonetheless, to Burnley 3-2. Burnley opened the season as a strong candidate for relegation are still a +100,000 wager to win the Premiership, but if you’d like to get carried away, a win at Stamford Bridge should equate to winning anywhere, on any pitch, at any time…why not dream big!
Fantasy Premier League Draft 2020/21. Free to play fantasy football game, set up your team at the official Premier League site. I’m not advocating that Everton can win the league, nor do I think that even 80:1.
I’m joking about Burnley, obviously, but their opening day stunner has impacted their relegation odds, bumping them to +135 with their odds to finish on the bottom all the way up to +600. The leader in that category is Brighton at +300, though there is no shame in a 2-0 home loss to Manchester City, whom they held scoreless for over 70 minutes.
Manchester United took an early sledgehammer to early “West Ham as a sleeper” notions, hammering Chicharito’s new squad 4-0 including a pair of goals from newly signed Romelu Lukaku, with a near hat trick bouncing off the post. West Ham’s odds of relegation have narrowed slightly to +800, while Christian Benteke’s Crystal Palace squad’s odds of falling below the dreaded line narrowed to just +275 after their uninspired 0-3 home loss to Huddersfield Town. Huddersfield, a fellow relegation candidate, in fact, the leading candidate at -110, certainly introduces some trepidation in that previously-safe looking wager by dismantling a team in the same mix on their home pitch.
It was an opening weekend full of impressive performances from some of the lesser-regarded teams in preseason projections. Was it simply an opening week blip, or a sign of things to come??
Here are three legit sleepers for the 2017-2018 English Premier League
#1. Everton +8000
I’m not advocating that Everton can win the league, nor do I think that even 80:1 makes this a useful wager. But the Toffee’s got a dream opener, not only winning at nil but seeing favorite son Wayne Rooney open his account in his debut match to get them a direly needed early win. The reason WHY it was so important; things get MUCH tougher this weekend with a trip to Manchester City. But even a loss here shouldn’t dissuade Everton supporters from hoping for a strong season. Their opening schedule is brutal. After Man City, they get Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in succession. Who did they anger in the scheduling department??
The good news – if you LIKE Everton with some prop wagers, like odds to finish in the top half or a longshot with them in the top six or even Champions League position, you can likely wait a few weeks to see the odds climb. Of course, this strategy could well backfire if they were to WIN a few of those games. But assuming their likely struggles to earn a point in the majority of the next month, you can swoop in and buy low on the Toffees and watch them begin to climb back up the table in October.
If any team can crack the clearly-separated Top Six, it is Everton. Let’s be frank – Romelu Lukaku is not equally replaced by Wayne Rooney. He is a BIG loss. But the drop off might not be as precipitous as feared if the 31-year old Rooney still has another few good years left in his legs now that he is healthy. Man U might have punted a little soon on the striker and not-so-far removed EPL Player of the Year.
Everton was also aggressive in the transfer market with a record-setting keeper transfer acquisition, signing Jordan Pickford from Sunderland, and 24-year old Michael Keane from Burnley. Everton spent some money this offseason, but will it be enough to leapfrog one more difficult place in the standings? They are +200 to finish in the Top Six, a place they could easily land if any of the top clubs take some unexpected injury hits.
#2. AFC Bournemouth +75,000
Another team that won’t win the league, but who could very well have value on a Top Ten wager, and should outperform expectations. They opened the season with a disappointing 1-0 loss at West Bromwich, but are still one of my favorite reasonable values on the “avoiding relegation” betting sheet, with odds varying between -600 and slightly slimmer.
Jermain Defoe is a big acquisition. The 34-year old veteran provides some valuable leadership and still has some scoring punch despite being unceremoniously dumped by Tottenham three years ago (and spending some time Stateside in the MLS). The splashy acquisition was $20 million pound Nathan Ake’, a daringly large sum for the Cherries in their quest to climb the EPL table.
Manager Eddie Howe is considered an up-and-coming football coaching star. Can he improve his stock with a better-than-expected finish for Bournemouth – especially if they can climb as high as seventh or eighth? And if so, will this be his final year perusing the Bournemouth sidelines?
I like the value of AFC Bournemouth finishing in the top half of the league. Don’t let a bad opening showing steer you away from this hidden value. They are -600 to stay up, and a nice value as the top Southern Club at +225 with Southampton being -225 and Brighton at +750.
#3. Newcastle United +75,000
(+300 to be relegated, -125 to finish as top newly promoted team)
Newcastle celebrated their return to the Premiership with an action-packed 2-0 loss at home to Tottenham. The loss isn’t unexpected, but the game got a lot of attention for Jonjo Shelvey seeing a red card for standing on Tottenham’s Deli Alli. A suspension is likely forthcoming. Add in injuries to defenders Paul Dummett and Florian Lejeune and things could get hairy early for Newcastle and manager Benitez.
It makes +300 a pretty tempting proposition. It isn’t abnormal for a team to make a one-year stint in the EPL before heading back down to the Championship Division. It’s just one game, but they certainly looked far worse than their newly promoted counterparts.
Newcastle has a disappointing transfer window, with even the promotion to the English top tier not enough to entice top talent to bolster the roster. Their manager commands respect, but just like in all professional sports, results hinge largely on talented players, no matter how good the managing and in-game tactics. There are teams with lower expectations, but the value at 3/1 on relegation is a nice value wager. This was a slightly popular sleeper in some circles, but I am going the other way on the Magpies.